May 2019

BY Andrew Marsh, Engineering Director, Auto Industry Consulting Ltd T he automotive aftermarket can always use a boost, and there is nothing quite like a motor show to get anyone – everyone – to talk about our industry. Yes, there’s a world of difference between repairing vehicles and the spangly glitz of the super-rich posing beside the very latest in super- expensive automotive ‘art’. Yet, for every single billionaire there are quite literally tens of thousands of vehicle users. We have a new automotive industry-specific word – electrification. Not the type of thing that is used to power trains but rather the addition of a tail pipe emission free’ energy source to compliment or even replace the internal combustion engine. The context? The Geneva Motor Show. Indeed, at almost every motor show if one did not have electricity/global warming/ecology associated with each new vehicle reveal, it simply wasn’t news. To see the ‘on the spot’ news coverage from the show could have left us thinking that anything with a piston engine of any sort is utterly irrelevant. However that is not the case. Zero emission ‘Zero emissions’ has a very specific meaning when it is measuring what comes out of an exhaust pipe. If there is no exhaust pipe, or all it does is eject water, the vehicle is officially described as ‘zero emission’. Forget the fact that energy storage system raw materials are mined all over the world, processed all over the world, built into energy storage packs, fitted to vehicles which are exported all over the world. Forget the energy used to make a single kWh. Even ‘free’ energy sources need machines to exploit it, which of course require energy to produce. The automotive sector all over the world is under attack, and is vulnerable: It is a statement of fact, not a complaint. Some – not all – vehicle manufacturers have abused emission testing, to the point the general public don’t quite know who can be trusted. Governments all over the world see a significant opportunity to not merely fend off lobbyist pressure but actively court it, in the name of ‘saving the planet’. Empty gestures and half formed policies abound. Rightly or wrongly, the automotive sector is in quite a fix. OEMs in Europe face from this year paying € 95 for each gramme of CO 2 for each car built over a fleet average limit (95 grammes of CO 2 per km). This is not a one-off, but part of an international rolling vehicle emission reduction policy. More emission cuts will come, and well before 2030. As Governments complete this social engineering, new forms of user taxation will take place in the none too distant future to recover revenue lost from reduced direct sales of fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, LPG or LNG). Who wasn’t there? Just in case anyone missed it, even without Brexit the global economy is on the downward slope into recession. The automotive sales slump in China has triggered cutbacks in number of vehicle manufacturers, ranging from ‘let’s keep the lights on for now’ (Ford) through to ‘let’s take action to downsize in an orderly fashion’ (almost everyone else). In the case of Europe, conforming to the new WLPT emission test combined with the utterly chaotic roll- out of Real Driving Emissions (RDE) has caused vehicle supply issues and unwelcome additional costs due to the convulsion caused by re-homologating existing vehicles to the new test methods. As a result some manufacturers chose to spend limited promotion budgets in more effective ways. This meant paying for expensive stand space at a motor show was not a priority. As a result, JLR, Ford, Volvo and Hyundai were not present. So, our online friends pushed out countless stories about ‘electric’ and ‘lack of support’. In the moment. So, what really went on? Most significant Why is Volkswagen’s MQB Evo platform delayed? To make way for its MEB platform, as the Group spends its way out of trouble. However, this is where it gets interesting. MEB is engineered as an ‘electrified’ platform, ranging from pure EV through to hybrid drive and PHEV. The MQB Evo platform has a raft of hybrid drive technology ranging from 48V ‘mild’ to more potent hybrid powertrains. However, after the scandal of emission test rigging, along with a steady stream of further negative revelations, the upshot is 16 AFTERMARKET MAY 2019 GENEVA MOTOR SHOW www.aftermarketonline.net POSTURING AND ELECTRICITY What can the Geneva Motor Show teach us about the technological automotive direction, and how this may affect the aftermarket?