October 2019

million electrified vehicles annually by 2030, with 1 million of these being zero-emissions vehicles. The remaining 4.5 million will be covered by hybrid vehicles. Impressive numbers when considered in isolation, however when compared to the total production output of Toyota, a different picture presents itself. “During the fiscal year that ended March 2017, Toyota sold around 10 million vehicles worldwide. No doubt Toyota will wish to improve on these figures by 2030; however, using 10 million as a benchmark figure still illustrates a point. Even by 2030, Toyota’s optimistic predictions state that only a tenth of the vehicles it will sell annually will be fully electric. In this time period, over nine million liquid-fuel powered cars are projected to be sold by Toyota, taking into account traditional petrol, ethanol or diesel-powered vehicles and hybrids.” Timescale What does Doug think this highlight to manufacturers and distributors of exhausts then? “Well, for a start, these figures show that there is a clear timescale before full electric cars gain an impact over traditional powertrains in terms of sales and it’s a long way off. Hybrid powertrains still require exhausts, as they blend traditional liquid fuelled engines with electric motors and batteries, so therefore produce emissions. This means that the exhaust is set to be widely used on new production vehicles well into the 2040s, and as average life spans vary between seven and 10 years, the aftermarket will be servicing these vehicles well into the 2050s. “Furthermore, this prediction does not consider the many challenges and concerns surrounding a worldwide switch to electric vehicles. Infrastructure to support electric vehicles will be lagging behind for some years to come, as illustrated by the 10 new nuclear power stations that would be required to reach the UK government’s pledge to fully electrify road cars by 2040.” Increased demand There are other considerations: “Access to rare earth metals used in battery production is anything but assured, with many resources such as cobalt held in conflict zones, while commodities businesses must scale up operations to meet increased demand. We only have to consider VAG Group’s failed 2017 tender to secure cobalt supply for the following five years to see the barriers the automotive industry must overcome. Conversely, if liquid fuel such as alcohol is manufactured on a large scale biologically, using sunlight and bacteria, it might just remain cheaper than electricity and extend the life of the combustion engine even further. Frankly at this point, who knows?” Doug concludes: “Finally, technological limitations such as battery heat generation haven’t been fully addressed, while many owners of electric vehicles are unsure how future maintenance work will be carried out and the total cost of ownership over the long-term. Ultimately it seems, for both the exhaust and liquid fuel cars in general, there is plenty more in the tank.” Auxiliary So there is a future for the exhaust. Good news for us, but what about diesel particulate filters? Considering the direction of travel on diesel car sales, as in downwards, is there still a market to exploit? If you consider the number of diesel vehicles sold over the last 15 years, there is definitely a big chunk of the parc still running on the fuel. This means you still need to consider diesel as part of your overall offering. The DPF offers may opportunities. While it performs a vital function, like every system it has its own weaknesses and can go wrong. With this in mind, LIQUI MOLY says its Diesel Particulate Filter cleaner offers a great auxiliary service for workshops. This product allows workshops to provide their customers with an economical alternative to replacing clogged DPFs. Reiner Schönfelder, Applications Engineer at LIQUI MOLY commented: “Diesel particulate filters reduce exhaust emissions. After they are filtered out, the soot particles are burned out of the filter at regular 38 AFTERMARKET OCTOBER 2019 EXHAUST SYSTEM AND DPF Below: Cracking the DPF dilema www.aftermarketonline.net