April 2020

APRIL 2020 AFTERMARKET 33 EYEBROW www.aftermarketonline.net of return is to make the suppliers, and in turn, their supply chain, shoulder the cost. Vehicle manufacturers transfer major investments to their suppliers in return for higher piece cost, to help reduce up-front investment and hence reduce the amount of cash that has to be raised. Hey presto! The annual returns look healthier, and the new or facelifted model programme gets into production. There is a by-product: Expertise as well as new system technology research is more likely to occur in a major Tier 1 supplier than inside a vehicle manufacturer. Indeed, vehicle manufacturers control overall product strategy, but are system integrators or commissioners rather than innovators. Here is a sample of the conversations I had with Tier 1 exhibitors at the IAA Frankfurt 2019 show. Panasonic: They own a small division of 30 software engineers dedicated to development and adaption of software for not only Panasonic products but also customer applications (i.e., vehicle manufacturers). In a wide-ranging conversation we discussed autonomy briefly, with the upshot that military head-up-display (HUD) information was minimised decades ago. After all, a pilot has fractions of a second to understand the information and to act on that information. No such prioritisation exists in the automotive world. Base Mark: This company works with Waymo and Microsoft, as well as many other major companies. This company provides software to work with other software, as a ‘wrapper’. That is a very basic understanding on my part, and a fraction of the capability of this small company based in Finland. We talked about universal access to automotive software, which this company is used to in other sectors but is amazed that this is not the case in the automotive sector. Once again autonomy was discussed, and the upshot is controlled corridors of supported network is the likely outcome to manage risk – and not much before 2030 either. Webasto: Long-standing manufacturer of all types of opening roof cassette assemblies, the company showed something new; LiDAR integrated into the module, in the front trim above the windscreen and at the rear of the module. The idea is real, since it was developed in conjunction with ADAS sensor technology partners, and neatly places all the key sensors as high as possible on the vehicle. Naturally the main objective is to offer a sensor suite for autonomy, and it is likely to reach production in the next two to three years. Velodyne: Famously, this company builds the expensive revolving drum LiDAR sensors which were seen so many years ago on top of the ‘Google’ car. Velodyne now offer LiDAR ranging from research tools (circa $25,000 each) right the way down to their latest solid-state modules intended for mass production. With some humour, Velodyne had their Tesla Model S demonstrator on the stand. What was the gag? Elon Musk really does not approve of LiDAR. AutonomouStuff: This company builds autonomous prototype vehicles, and have supplied more than 300 conversions worldwide so far. That’s 300 fully equipped research vehicles, where the system costs in the region of $250,000 in addition to the base vehicle cost. The discussion threw up some interesting points. For example, vehicles registered in Germany have to pass an annual inspection like any other vehicle, and so they found an inspector who wants to learn about future systems. In this Left: IAA Frankfurt 2019. New technology may draw a crowd at a show, but what does it mean for garages in the real world? way, the company work with the inspector to ensure the vehicles are registered for road use. The upshot? Knowledge at government level of the implications of autonomy are patchy at beast, and most lobby groups pushing for autonomous vehicles lack important information about system capability. Bluntly, the learning curve is steep and 2030 might be the earliest opportunity to roll out limited autonomous SAE ‘level 5’ services – where the occupant does nothing but command the address the vehicle has to go to. Have you seen any of this from other media sources? Most outlets concentrate on technology little deeper than the thickness of the paint. Battling away The people who actually buy vehicles have become disconnected from the engineering glory of the automotive sector, so that much of the communication is devoted to an ever-narrowing audience. The automotive industry right now has multiple problems, ranging from poor return on investment, through ever increasing development costs to very powerful lobbying. The latter element is growing like weeds in a field, since the automotive industry – which does try really hard to communicate – effectively is talking to itself. The greater public only ‘get’ vehicles which inspire, like the Land Rover Defender L661. Yes, there were more significant and better engineered new vehicles on show, let alone to buy – yet we have to re-learn connection with the public. What’s our future? The traditional aftermarket – especially the independent sector – is all set for transformation. Regardless of our wish to remain relatively anonymous, or ‘trade only’, the sector is poised to fill the ever-widening information gap. That’s because there is real expertise across the aftermarket which is no longer the exclusive domain of the franchised dealers. The choice is to engage with the public or to remain essentially ‘trade only’ – and, frankly, the franchised dealer business model means such a poor return on investment it is all but broken. The old order is gone. For those who wish to grow their business, becoming the one-stop-shop for the general public is a great aim, even though there is significant distrust of ‘the trade’. What will transform the business performance is an ability to convey knowledge about solving vehicle malfunctions or system failures – that knowledge in turn will build trust since for the greater part this type of public facing service is not generally on offer. As OEMs struggle to support vehicles even five years after the last build, the independent after market is poised to take over this vital product support. You have significant knowledge and the general public don’t know which way to turn. Let’s put these two powerful and entirely complimentary trends together.