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NOVEMBER 2021 AFTERMARKET 11 materials in the fuel system that resist the attack from ethanol. In addition, plated metal components of the fuel system enable the formation of the peroxides.” Bulk of production This we heard earlier. Was there anything that could have been done to make a higher-ratio of ethanol in the fuel less damaging to vehicles? “Ironically,” Andrew observed, “increasing the ethanol content to around 25%, as in E25 or more by volume, decreases the rate of degradation. The negative effects of alcohol blended fuel are at their worst in the region of 10%.” Brilliant. Moving on though, there is another factor behind the move to E10 according to Andrew: “Production of E5 for one region becomes progressively more expensive, and although HM Treasury take an enormous slice of the price of each litre in tax, the companies owning refineries are more likely to collaborate if they can use fuel grades common to the rest of the world. E10 has been in use in North America for decades, and has been phased in across Europe for some years too. “If the government, by accident or otherwise, makes life difficult for refiners, demanding they make 95 octane E5 just for the UK for example, then the answer from the refinery companies is ‘goodbye’. Suddenly there is no fuel to tax. However, producing more expensive 97 octane E5 in smaller quantities is very possible, just as long as the bulk of production is E10 to harmonise with other plants around the world.” Expectations What can the public, and garages, expect? Andrew observed: “Vehicles engineered for international sales, especially for North America, are likely to have no issue with E10 apart from a slight increase in fuel consumption. In addition, it might be worth re-examining the heat range of the spark plugs at each service. Vehicles only sold in the EU built before 2011 may not be able to handle the fuel too well. Again, there will be an increase in fuel consumption, but the bigger long-term concern is the fuel system developing leaks as key rubber compounds swell and then fail. Re-building the fuel lines and replacing all the seals with E10-compatible materials will not be cheap, but will be essential. This applies to those who have classic cars, and want to run them on 95 octane fuel. “If a vehicle fuel tank is filled with E10, very little will happen apart from possibly not running too well and that fuel consumption increases. Refilling with 97 octane E5 will eliminate the rough-running and improve fuel consumption. For those with very old classic cars, even more expensive work to replace valves and valve seats to mitigate the effects of trace lead fuel will have been completed, along with adjustments to the carburettor jets as well as the ignition timing.” Plug in What does all of this mean for the fortunes of the various drive trains vying for the attention of car-buyers at present, including the further-boozed-up via-E10 internal combustion engine? Andrew observed: “The UK car parc at the end of 2020 had, according to the SMMT, around 40,350,000 vehicles of which 35,801,000 were cars. The UK new vehicle market, aside from semi-conductor supply issues, varies between 2.3 and 2.7 million units per year. “If. and this is a big if, we by-pass all forms of internal combustion engine powered new vehicles right now, it would take more than 13 years to convert cars to battery electric power, assuming record sales for all years. If the Chancellor was able to give cash away, which he can’t, and double new vehicle sales towards 5.4 million vehicles per year, the conversion process will take 6.5 years. Just think of that; 2.7 million ‘free’ cars on top of a record sales year, for six and a half years. “For those who think the MHEV, HEV and PHEV are dead, please think again. At some point economics will come back into the debate, along with the realisation that cleaner internal combustion engine applications are a good deal cheaper in terms of positive environmental impact than a half-baked rush to BEVs, before all the infrastructure development is underway.” Andrew concluded: “Unless we propose removal of personal mobility for millions of people, so reversing a century of progress, then the ‘no internal combustion engines’ cry is just hot air. That’s before we look at the sorry state of the National Grid, electricity generation or energy security. For the automotive aftermarket all of these developments, E10 included, result in more, not less work, for the sector. That’s good for us, our businesses and GB PLC.” It might be worth re-examining the heat range of the spark plugs at each service ” 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 )4 -*/)+ *-3. /,324 -.-*/)+ /0/2 /*-)//. ) Y AWA + /30/23 //-3 3 23 23 / // */) 432 03 /0*.) . 23/.2/23 3/)**2/ /,/0 , 23-* , 4 , 2/ .- 3 +*)) ('&%$ #"' '!& -,3 *).0/ 3 / )0) 2. *- 3