October 2020

28 n ROBOTS October 2020 www.drivesncontrols.com Will robot sales bounce back in 2021? T here are currently more than 2.7 million industrial robots being used in factories around the world. Last year the number increased by 12%. But, the 373,000 robots shipped globally during 2019 was 12% down on the 2018 figure. These statistics come from the latest annual report* from the International Federation of Robotics.“The stock of industrial robots operating in factories around the world today marks the highest level in history,”IFR president, Milton Guerry reports.“Driven by the success story of smart production and automation, this is a worldwide increase of about 85% in five years (2014-2019). The 12% slowdown in sales during 2019 reflected the difficult times experienced last year by the automotive and electrical / electronics sectors, which are the two biggest buyers of robots. There has been a lot of speculation about what effects the Coronavirus pandemic might have on the automation sector in general, and on industrial robots in particular. There is a widespread belief that, as the pandemic eases, manufacturers will turn increasingly to automation, partly to reduce their dependence on human workers, and partly to help implement measures such as social distancing for those people who do continue to work in their factories. Robots can help to make production more resilient, the IFR argues, and many governments are now supporting investments in modern production technologies. Another factor driving the market, according to the Federation, is the desire to move away from long supply chains encircling the world, and the consequent need to reshore at least some manufacturing. New markets One beneficial consequence of Covid-19 is that new markets have opened up in areas such as healthcare to meet the need for personnel protective equipment and other medical supplies. But, the IFR points out, the pandemic has also had substantial negative effects such as plummeting consumer demand and manufacturers deferring investments. And the automotive sector could take a long time to resume spending on automation and robotics at the levels that it did in the past. “The consequences from the coronavirus pandemic for the global economy cannot be fully assessed yet,”says Guerry.“The remaining months of 2020 will be shaped by adaptation to the ‘new normal’, with robot suppliers adjusting to the demand for new applications and developing solutions.”But, he adds,“a major stimulus from large-scale orders is unlikely this year”. China might be an exception, because its recovery began in the second quarter of this year. Other economies are now at the turning point, Guerry reports,“but it will take a few months until this translates into automation projects and robot demand”. He expects the bounceback to happen at different times in different markets, and is cautious about how quickly it will happen. “2021 will see some recovery,”he predicts,“but it may take until 2022 or 2023 to reach the pre-crisis level.” Returning to the IFR’s analysis of the industrial robot market in 2019, it reports that the automotive sector continued to be the largest buyer, acquiring some 105,000 machines worldwide during the year (and bringing its total installed base to 923,000). But the 2019 sales figures fell from the 126,000 robots that the sector bought in 2018. Similarly, the electrical/electronics industry bought just 88,000 robots last year, compared to 105,000 in 2018. The third-largest end-user, the metals and machinery sector acquired 44,000 robots during 2019 – almost the same as it did the year before. Handling dominates In terms of applications, handling is still the predominant use for industrial robots, accounting for 173,000 of the machines sold last year (down slightly from 178,000 in 2018). The next-largest application, welding, was less than half the size, accounting for 75,000 robots (compared to 89,000 in 2018). It was followed by assembly (36,000), cleanroom (25,000) and dispensing (12,000) applications. In terms of regional markets, China remained by far the largest buyer of industrial robots last year, adding 140,500 new installations (21% more than it did in 2018) to reach a total of around 783,000 operational The latest figures for robot installations around the world reveal that the market was slowing down even before the arrival of Covid-19. Will the pandemic sustain the decline, or give the market a boost? The 15 largest markets for industrial robots in 2019. The UK, with around 2,000 new installations, is outside the top 15 and below countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic (both of which installed about 2,600 robots last year) Source: International Federation of Robotics